Permit me to
start by thanking Chatham House for the invitation to talk
about this important topic at this crucial time. When speaking about
Nigeria overseas, I normally prefer to be my country’s public
relations and marketing officer, extolling her virtues and
hoping to attract investments and tourists. But as we all know, Nigeria is
now battling with many challenges, and if I refer to them, I do
so only to impress on our friends in the United Kingdom that we are
quite aware of our shortcomings and are doing our best to
address them.
The 2015
general election in Nigeria is generating a lot of interests within and
outside the country. This is understandable. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous
country and largest economy, is at a defining moment, a moment that has great
implications beyond the democratic project and beyond the
borders of my dear country.
So let me say
upfront that the global interest in
Nigeria’s landmark election is not misplaced at all and indeed
should be commended; for this is an election that has
serious import for the world. I urge the international community to continue
to focus on Nigeria at this very critical moment.
Given increasing global linkages, it is in our collective interests that
the postponed elections should hold on the rescheduled
dates; that they should be free and fair; that their
outcomes should be respected by all parties; and that any
form of extension, under whichever guise, is unconstitutional
and will not be tolerated.
With
the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the dissolution of the USSR in
1991, the collapse of communism and the end of the Cold War, democracy
became the dominant and most preferred system of government across
the globe. That global transition has been aptly captured as the triumph
of democracy and the ‘most pre-eminent political idea of our
time.’ On a personal note, the phased end of the USSR was a
turning point for me. It convinced me that change can be brought
about without firing a single shot.
As you all
know, I had been a military head of state in
Nigeria for twenty months. We intervened because
we were unhappy with the state of affairs in our country. We wanted to
arrest the drift. Driven by patriotism, influenced by the
prevalence and popularity of such drastic measures all over Africa and
elsewhere, we fought our way to power. But the global
triumph of democracy has shown that another and a preferable
path to change is possible. It is an important lesson I have carried
with me since, and a lesson that is not lost on
the African continent.
In the last
two decades, democracy has grown strong roots in
Africa. Elections, once so rare, are now so commonplace. As at the
time I was a military head of state between 1983 and 1985, only
four African countries held regular multi-party elections. But
the number of electoral democracies in Africa, according to Freedom
House, jumped to 10 in 1992/1993 then to 18 in 1994/1995 and to 24 in
2005/2006. According to the New York Times, 42 of the 48
countries in Sub-Saharan Africa conducted multi-party elections
between 1990 and 2002.
The
newspaper also reported that between 2000 and 2002, ruling parties in four
African countries (Senegal, Mauritius, Ghana and Mali) peacefully
handed over power to victorious opposition parties. In addition, the
proportion of African countries categorized as not free by
Freedom House declined from 59% in 1983 to 35% in 2003. Without doubt,
Africa has been part of the current global wave of
democratisation.
But the
growth of democracy on the continent has been uneven. According to Freedom
House, the number of electoral democracies in Africa slipped from 24 in
2007/2008 to 19 in 2011/2012; while the percentage of countries categorised
as ‘not free’ assuming for the sake of argument that we accept their
definition of “free” increased from 35% in 2003 to 41% in
2013. Also, there have been some reversals at different times in Burkina Faso, Central
African Republic, Cote
D’Ivoire, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mali, Madagascar,
Mauritania and Togo. We can choose to look at the glass of democracy in
Africa as either half full or half empty.
While you
can’t have representative democracy without elections, it is equally
important to look at the quality of the elections and to
remember that mere elections do not democracy make. It is globally
agreed that democracy is not an event, but a journey. And that the
destination of that journey is democratic consolidation – that
state where democracy has become so rooted and so
routine and widely accepted by all actors.
With this
important destination in mind, it is clear that though many African
countries now hold regular elections, very few of them have consolidated
the practice of democracy. It is important to also state at this point
that just as with elections, a consolidated democracy cannot be
an end by itself. I will argue that it is not enough to hold a series
of elections or even to peacefully alternate power among
parties.
It
is much more important that the promise of democracy goes beyond
just allowing people to freely choose their leaders. It
is much more important that democracy should deliver on the
promise of choice, of freedoms, of security of lives
and property, of transparency and accountability, of rule of law, of good
governance and of shared prosperity. It is very important that
the promise embedded in the concept of democracy, the promise of
a better life for the generality of the people, is not delivered in the
breach.
Now, let
me quickly turn to Nigeria. As you all know, Nigeria’s fourth republic is
in its 16th year and this general election will be the fifth in a
row. This is a major sign of progress for us, given that our first
republic lasted five years and three months, the second republic ended
after four years and two months and the third republic was a
still-birth. However, longevity is not the only reason why everyone is so
interested in this election.
The major
difference this time around is that for the very first time since transition to
civil rule in 1999, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is facing its
stiffest opposition so far from our party the All Progressives Congress (APC).
We once had about 50 political parties, but with no real competition.
Now Nigeria is transitioning from a dominant party system to a competitive
electoral polity, which is a major marker on the road to democratic
consolidation. As you know, peaceful alternation of power through competitive
elections have happened in Ghana, Senegal, Malawi
and Mauritius in recent times. The prospects of democratic
consolidation in Africa will be further brightened when that eventually
happens in Nigeria.
But there are
other reasons why Nigerians and the whole world are intensely focussed on this
year’s elections, chief of which is that the elections are holding in the
shadow of huge security, economic and social uncertainties in Africa’s most
populous country and largest economy. On insecurity, there is a genuine
cause for worry, both within and outside Nigeria. Apart from the civil war
era, at no other time in our history has Nigeria been this insecure.
Boko Haram
has sadly put Nigeria on the terrorism map, killing more than 13,000
of our nationals, displacing millions internally and externally, and
at a time holding on to portions of our territory the size of
Belgium. What has been consistently lacking is the required leadership in
our battle against insurgency. I, as a retired general and a former head
of state, have always known about our soldiers: they
are capable, well trained, patriotic, brave and always
ready to do their duty in the service of our country.
You all can
bear witness to the gallant role of our military in Burma,
the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, Liberia,
Darfur and in many other peacekeeping operations in
several parts of the world. But in the matter of this insurgency, our
soldiers have neither received the necessary support nor the required
incentives to tackle this problem. The government has also failed in any effort
towards a multi-dimensional response to this problem leading to a situation in
which we have now become dependent on our neighbours to come to our
rescue.
Let me assure
you that if I am elected president, the world will have no cause to worry
about Nigeria as it has had to recently; that
Nigeria will return to its stabilising role in West Africa; and
that no inch of Nigerian territory will ever be lost to the enemy
because we will pay special attention to the welfare of our
soldiers in and out of service, we will give them adequate and
modern arms and ammunitions to work with, we will improve
intelligence gathering and border controls to choke Boko Haram’s
financial and equipment channels, we will be tough on terrorism and tough on
its root causes by initiating a comprehensive economic development plan
promoting infrastructural development, job creation, agriculture and industry
in the affected areas. We will always act on time and not allow problems to irresponsibly fester,
and I, Muhammadu Buhari, will always lead from the front
and return Nigeria to its leadership role in regional and international efforts
to combat terrorism.
On the
economy, the fall in prices of oil has brought our economic and social stress
into full relief. After the rebasing exercise in April 2014, Nigeria
overtook South Africa as Africa’s largest economy. Our GDP is now valued at
$510 billion and our economy rated 26th in the world. Also
on the bright side, inflation has been kept at single digit for a
while and our economy has grown at an average of 7% for
about a decade.
But it is
more of paper growth, a growth that, on account of mismanagement,
profligacy and corruption, has not translated to human development or
shared prosperity. A development economist once said three questions
should be asked about a country’s development: one, what is happening
to poverty? Two, what is happening to unemployment? And three, what is
happening to inequality?
The answers
to these questions in Nigeria show that the
current administration has created two economies in one country,
a sorry tale of two nations: one economy for a few who have so
much in their tiny island of prosperity; and the other economy for
the many who have so little in their vast ocean of misery.
Even by
official figures, 33.1% of Nigerians live in extreme poverty. That’s at almost
60 million, almost the population of the United Kingdom. There is also the
unemployment crisis simmering beneath the surface, ready to explode at the slightest
stress, with officially 23.9% of our adult population and almost 60% of
our youth unemployed. We also have one of the highest rates of
inequalities in the world.
With all
these, it is not surprising that our performance on most governance and development
indicators (like Mo Ibrahim Index on African Governance and UNDP’s
Human Development Index.) are unflattering. With fall in the
prices of oil, which accounts for more than 70% of government revenues, and
lack of savings from more than a decade of oil boom, the poor will be
disproportionately impacted.
In the face
of dwindling revenues, a good place to start the repositioning of Nigeria’s
economy is to swiftly tackle two ills that have ballooned under the present
administration: waste and corruption. And in doing this, I will, if
elected, lead the way, with the force of personal example.
On
corruption, there will be no confusion as to where I stand. Corruption will
have no place and the corrupt will not be appointed into my administration.
First and foremost, we will plug the holes in the budgetary process. Revenue
producing entities such as NNPC and Customs and Excise will have one set of
books only. Their revenues will be publicly disclosed and regularly audited.
The institutions of state dedicated to fighting corruption will be given
independence and prosecutorial authority without political interference.
But I must
emphasise that any war waged on corruption should not be misconstrued as
settling old scores or a witch-hunt. I’m running for President to lead Nigeria
to prosperity and not adversity.
In reforming
the economy, we will use savings that arise from blocking these
leakages and the proceeds recovered from corruption to fund our
party’s social investments programmes in education, health, and safety
nets such as free school meals for children, emergency public
works for unemployed youth and pensions for the elderly.
As a
progressive party, we must reform our political economy to unleash the
pent-up ingenuity and productivity of the Nigerian people thus freeing them
from the curse of poverty. We will run a private sector-led economy
but maintain an active role for government through strong
regulatory oversight and deliberate interventions and incentives to diversify
the base of our economy, strengthen productive sectors, improve the
productive capacities of our people and create jobs for our teeming youths.
In short, we
will run a functional economy driven by a worldview that
sees growth not as an end by itself, but as a tool to create a society that
works for all, rich and poor alike. On March 28, Nigeria has a decision to
make. To vote for the continuity of failure or to elect progressive change. I
believe the people will choose wisely.
In sum, I
think that given its strategic importance, Nigeria can trigger a wave of
democratic consolidation in Africa. But as a starting point we need to get this
critical election right by ensuring that they go ahead, and depriving
those who want to scuttle it the benefit of derailing our fledgling democracy.
That way, we will all see democracy and democratic consolidation as tools
for solving pressing problems in a sustainable way, not as ends in
themselves.
Permit me to
close this discussion on a personal note. I have heard and read references
to me as a former dictator in many respected British newspapers including
the well regarded Economist. Let me say without sounding defensive that
dictatorship goes with military rule, though some might be less
dictatorial than others. I take responsibility for whatever happened under my
watch.
I cannot
change the past. But I can change the present and the future. So before
you is a former military ruler and a converted democrat
who is ready to operate under democratic norms and is subjecting
himself to the rigours of democratic elections for the fourth time.
You may ask:
why is he doing this? This is a question I ask myself all the
time too. And here is my humble answer: because the work of
making Nigeria great is not yet done, because I still believe that
change is possible, this time through the ballot, and most importantly, because
I still have the capacity and the passion to dream and work for a Nigeria that
will be respected again in the comity of nations and that all Nigerians will be
proud of.
Thank
you
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